I remember this one day playing on the beach as a kid by myself, I had this raggy-missing-patch soccer ball I was using as a floatie.
We couldn't afford great balls back then. But we had great beaches. While playing, I'd throw the ball a little bit ahead of me, and I'd swim to it, then use it as a floatie to swim back.
But that day, a strong gust came, and it sent my ball flying 20 feet into the deep end of the Adriatic Sea.
Then without thinking, I started swimming to get my ball. I loved that ball. It wasn't just a floatie but a friendship maker because every kid back there loved playing a game of soccer.
But as I swam toward the ball, another strong wind hit.
Then it was another 10 feet toward the Italian coast and away from mine for my ball. It was at this point, while I was huffing for air, that I remember vividly thinking, "Let me take a break."
But as my feet reached down for my breather, there was no seabed to reach.
Then I looked back, and the coastline felt a mile away.
But if I could just reach that ball, I'd be ok. I'd used it that way a thousand times. Floating with it and kicking was how I was learning to swim. The third world had no swimming coaches. And no lifeguards. And my grandmother, back at shore, couldn't swim herself to save me.
But I had a tough choice to make. I was about to go too far. Do I go for my ball?
But of course, that's not the only time in my life where I recognized I was "in that moment." I was about to go too far and I had a choice to make.
It happened when I got into engineering management. I remember looking back and thinking, "If I keep going on the engineering management track, I'll likely never be able to pass another leet code-style interview for a senior individual contribution again."
But I was learning a lot about human behavior, communication, and so many other useful skills. "Fuck leet code," I thought. "I am just going to go for this management stuff."
But then this moment happened again recently when I got into business.
I'd quit my cushy-high-paying job, and the venture-funded startup that I quit to start with some partners wasn't going as planned for me. I wasn’t making much money, and I was eating into my savings. But I saw another path. I'd just made my first few internet dollars on my own. "If I could just do more of this," I thought, "if I could just place some more small bets, then I might be able to survive as an entrepreneur."
But that was getting me further and further from the shoreline of employment. And that direction might soon make me unattractive to employers. My business partner Daniel Vassallo jokes on his Twitter profile that he's "bad for the economy." That's because he teaches people how to leave traditional employment and fend for themselves without an employer.
I decided back at that moment that I was going for freedom, even if it ultimately made me unemployable eventually.
But that day, when I swam to get that ball, I learned to recognize these "I am about to go too far" moments.
You might find yourself in similar moments and I think it's important for you to recognize them when they happen. Decide consciously. And of course, I can't tell you what to decide.
But I can tell you that if you're reasonably certain you can make it, and you do decide to go for it, you will find a little extra energy, a little extra power within yourself, that you never thought you had. After I reached that ball that day, I felt like I could've swam a whole lot more if I had to.
I am quoting Nipsey Hussle here, who was paraphrasing T.S. Elliot: "Only those who risk going a little too far can possibly find out how far they can go."
A Small Promo from Me:
We have a super-packed lineup of exciting live classes coming up in Small Bets. Take a look at this list of confirmed events:
Feb 06: Publish a Best-Selling Course on Udemy by Hassan Osman
Feb 07: Amazon KDP Crash Course by Greg Lim
Feb 08: Reproducible Success Strategies & Ergodicity by Luca Dellanna
Feb 09: How to Start Your First Cohort Course by Daniel Vassallo et al
Feb 13: How to Sift Through the Treasure Trove of Online Data by Steph Smith
Feb 15: Make $500 on Upwork by Monday by Sean O'Dowd
Feb 22: SEO Keyword Research by Jordan O'Connor
Feb 27: Equity Crowdfunding for Solopreneurs by Sahil Lavingia
Feb 29: Building a Media Business by Arvid Kahl
Mar 03: A Practical Guide to Self-Employment Taxes by Catherine Cusick
Mar 11: Small Bets Fundamentals by Daniel Vassallo
Mar 14: Enough GPT to be Dangerous by Sairam Sundaresan
Mar 21: Building a Content Roadmap for SEO by Jordan O'Connor
Mar 26: Explaining Ideas Visually by Janis Ozolins
Apr 09: Creating Income through Real Estate by Louie Bacaj
Apr 10: Accounting and Bookkeeping Basics by Antonio Reza
Apr 11: Getting Started with Midjourney by Christian Heidorn
Apr 16: Delve Into Expiring Domain Names by Peter Askew
Apr 23: Self-Sponsor Your Own US Green Card by Archie Agrawal
Apr 25: Marketing Fundamentals for Non-Marketers by Daniel Vassallo
Apr 30: Getting Started on YouTube by Aprilynne Alter
May 06: Getting Started with Short-Term Rentals on Airbnb by Isaac French
May 07: Gumroad Crash Course by Daniel Vassallo
May 14: Intro to Google Ads by Jay Mac
May 21: Emerging from the Void on X by Daniel Vassallo
If you're not a member yet, you can join Small Bets today for $185 — once. This is a one-time payment (no recurring fees) and lets you join all the above classes, all future classes, and watch all past recordings. If this interests you, it would be an honor to welcome you aboard. And if you are already a member, then I’ll see you in some of the classes.
Three Things: Scale, Slow it Down, A Voyage
There’s been a huge debate on Twitter about scale.
I have so many things to say on this topic. But in an effort to keep this newsletter small, I’ll share these two links with you on what I’ve said on it already. Link 1: Scale can be bought. Link 2: The real risk is you’ll make things that help no one.
There is a lot of truth to this. No matter how good your computer hardware gets, somehow, we seem to find a way to make it slower.
My internet friend, Bojan, struck a nerve with this one.
Thank you for reading!
—Louie
P.S. You can reply directly to this email; I will read it and try to reply to everyone.
I’ll leave you with another great quote by Nipsey Hussle:
“If you look at the people in your circle and you don't get inspired, then you don't have a circle. You have a cage."
Louie, your metaphorical competency is superb. This is exactly the kind of storytelling I keep encouraging people to explore because it's so effective at communicating a point. I'm going to share this with students in my speaking classes.
“But I can tell you that if you're reasonably certain you can make it, and you do decide to go for it, you will find a little extra energy, a little extra power within yourself, that you never thought you had.”
I’ve felt this euphoric feeling that you describe here on a few occasions - a gamble that paid off. knowing that you made a choice you felt strongly about but were scared at the time because nothing was certain… and then you find success.
this was a good reminder. the rule applies no matter how grand the scale - you gotta risk it for the biscuit