M&Ms: A Bad Case of The Frequency Illusion

What is frequency illusion and is it bad for you?

I've got a bad case of "the frequency illusion."

I bought a new car, and now I see my make & model everywhere I look.

The frequency illusion is interesting because I looked at many car makes before I bought the one I bought, and yet I rarely notice those.

This "cognitive bias" was discovered in 2005. The frequency illusion occurs when you see something more often, even though it's not really there more than before. It results from two psychological processes: Selective Attention & Confirmation Bias—both of which sound bad. 

Who the hell wants "Selective Attention" and "Confirmation Bias" acting on them on a regular basis? If I, by accident, catch one more of these cognitive biases and mix it in, I'd have what Charlie Munger used to call "a lollapalooza" and might become a lost cause.

But as I thought about all this some more, it turns out I do want this frequency illusion & its biases acting on me. And maybe you do, too.

The first time I noticed myself with a bad case of "the frequency illusion" was when I put out my first product on my own, "Timeless Career Advice for Software Engineers." It made a few sales on launch. But then, almost immediately after, I noticed opportunities to promote it that had never occurred to me before I had the product.

Take this example: I replied to this post on Blind, which instantly led to 5 sales, and many more after. 

Blind can be a toxic place. Just look at some of the answers people gave the questioner.

I had never posted on the Blind social network before, but browsing it became a habit of mine from my days as an engineering manager. And on that day, when I saw that "1:1 with manager" post, I said to myself, "Self, you can answer this and be helpful! You even just put out a product that covers this!" 

And here I am answering it very earnestly (I cut my answer short for brevity):

And here they are, appreciating my answer and calling me "sensei."

But the frequency illusion was at work here. Prior to my selective attention, I was blind to this opportunity sitting right in front of me with the social network Blind (Pun intended). 

It's a minor nuisance to see your car everywhere you look because of the frequency illusion. But thank God I caught that frequency illusion after I had a product out because it made me money.

I was so surprised that it worked and led to sales that I felt compelled to share it in the Small Wins channel in Small Bets.

But don't you think a heightened awareness to notice places to promote your product is helpful? In fact, I've recently accepted that almost every one of these cognitive biases that we like to think of as "bad" can be immensely helpful under the right conditions and circumstances.

Take Charlie Munger's "lollapalooza," which occurs when three or more psychological biases & misjudgments are acting on you. In his book, Charlie gives an example of 5-6 of these biases being used by Alcoholics Anonymous to do God's work and cure people of alcoholism. The maestro, Munger, called these biases the "psychology of human misjudgments," but that does not do them justice. He should've called them superpowers to be harnessed under the right conditions. But if he had done that, the idea might not have become as popular, so maybe he knew exactly what he was doing.

But anyway, as I've now thought about all this some more, I came to realize that "the frequency illusion" is probably responsible for tens of thousands of dollars in sales that I've made over the last few years. Almost all the good opportunities that popped up for my stuff popped up after I had the product, and it had made some money.

In fact, like the car thing, I noticed this happening to me every time now with my products. I usually have an idea about where I'll promote a product before I make it. I'll have a thesis about how it might do, and then after it's out there and makes a few sales, I suddenly stumble on many other opportunities I couldn't have seen before I had the product. 

So what are you waiting for? Get your product out there, make a few sales, and catch a bad case of the frequency illusion. Who knows what sorts of opportunities you might start to notice that you never noticed before you had a product.

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A Small Promo from Me:

We have a packed lineup of live classes coming up in Small Bets. Take a look at this list of confirmed events:

• Apr 25: Marketing Fundamentals for Non-Marketers by Daniel Vassallo

• Apr 30: Getting Started on YouTube by Aprilynne Alter

• May 02: Building and Launching macOS Apps with SwiftUI by Grace Huang

• May 06: Getting Started with Short-Term Rentals on Airbnb by Isaac French

• May 07: Gumroad Crash Course by Daniel Vassallo

• May 09: Explaining Ideas Visually by Janis Ozolins

• May 14: Intro to Google Ads by Jay Mac

• May 16: Wandering the Pathless Path by Paul Millerd

• May 21: Emerging from the Void on X by Daniel Vassallo

• May 28: Small Bets Fundamentals by Daniel Vassallo

• Jun 03: Content Marketing Fundamentals by Amanda Natividad

• Jun 04: How to Sift Through the Treasure Trove of Online Data by Steph Smith

• Jun 06: Effortless Screencasting by Aaron Francis

• Jun 13: SEO Keyword Research by Jordan O'Connor

• Jun 18: AI for the Rest of Us by Sairam Sundaresan

• Jul 02: Understanding the X Algorithm by Dagobert Renouf

• Jul 09: Growing on Substack by Elle Griffin

• Jul 16: How to Start Your First Cohort Course by Chris Wong & Louie Bacaj

• Jul 25: Building a Media Business by Arvid Kahl

• Jul 30: Understanding LinkedIn by Justin Welsh

• Aug 16: Make $500 on Upwork by Monday by Sean O'Dowd

• Sep 10: Creating Income through Real Estate by Louie Bacaj

• Sep 17: Amazon KDP Crash Course by Greg Lim

• Sep 24: Publish a Best-Selling Course on Udemy by Hassan Osman

Not counting our multiple-day classes (of which there are many), we’ve now had over 150 live classes & events at Small Bets so far.

If you're not a member yet, you can join Small Bets today with 50% off, by using code FOLLOWER at checkout.

A Small Bets mebership is a one-time payment (no recurring fees) and lets you join all the above classes and all future classes and watch all past recordings. If this interests you, it would be an honor to welcome you aboard. And if you are already a member, then I’ll see you in some of the new classes above.

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Three Things: The Zuck Glow, Markets & Tired, AI Influencers

Zuckerberg is making his rounds and slowly becoming one of the world’s favorite founders.

At a time when many of the world’s other favorite founders seem to be crashing & burning their reputations.

The meme is becoming known as the “Zuck glow-up.”

And I can confirm that the Zuck glow-up seems to happen to bootstrapped founders who are succeeding constantly. It’s not just reserved for the well-known ones.

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“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” as John Maynard Keynes famously said.

I like to remember that warning whenever I think the real estate market has to crash soon or some other market has to give in.

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A fun meme that probably applies to more than just AI influencers.

But this is an interesting thing that social media brought to the forefront.

Do we think the reporters of old were better than the influencers of today?

I don’t know…

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Thank you for reading!

—Louie

P.S. You can reply directly to this email, it will get to me and I will read it.