Thanks for mentioning my newsletter, Louie. You have been a great source of inspiration for me as well, and your support has been invaluable. In my case, loving what I do and what I am writing about helped a lot to be consistent.
Hey Louie - let me give you another perspective on this.
Yes, big tech orgs are laying off people. Yes, GenAI will increase productivity. Yes to all of those.
But we are forgetting that Big Tech was hiring LIKE CRAZY in 2020-2021-2022, at a non-sustainable rate.
I checked Google and Microsoft: in 2022, they both hired the highest number of employees EVER in their history...
I checked Amazon: they hired more than 800K employees only in 2020 and 2021. Sure, they got rid of 100K of them in 2022 and 2023, but still...
I wouldn't be surprised if this is the trend of other large tech companies as well. Because I remember noticing it during the first couple of years of the 2020s.
So, in my opinion, the lesson here is that they were too aggressive in the good times and, actually, they have been TOO SOFT so far in the bad times.
They should have made people redundant at a quicker pace earlier on, to avoid this state of uncertainty that, as you well know, people dislike.
The universal learning is that people often fall into the trap of believing that what's good will last forever (hence, "let's hire as many people as possible"), and what's bad will never improve (hence, "Big Tech is dying")...
I entirely agree with the philosophy of "diversifying out": indeed, people should work on it when things are going great, without the additional stress that we normally experience when the skies are cloudy...
They always get me thinking. I think there is a good chance you’re right.
And still my gut instincts are that these firms have climbed to highs we’ve never seen before. And a lot of change is coming, there are also serious possibilities they botch some of their adaptations to these changes. In my opinion Google is already showing strong signs of not being able to adapt in their core business vs OpenAi, etc. Twitter going with 80% layoffs and still working is an insane thing to thing about, etc.
But by en large I think you’re right that the pandemic compounded their problems a little bit more.
Let’s see though, just a few years ago it was impossible to see any of these firms lose their grip.
Yep, my thoughts too. I think we'll see hordes of super talented engineers deciding to go solo. This is my first month.
“we've got an industry that already needs fewer people than most. And now, AI is coming into the picture. [...] I am pessimistic about big tech companies, but I am very optimistic about tech skills continuing to be valuable and useful. It is just where those tech skills might be most useful may not be in the places they used to be valued most before.”
It’s very possible Ryan, that we will see many more try and carve their own path. In my opinion, it’s a good thing, the pie is still growing a lot. And it might grow more.
Online presence is excellent for your personal brand, expanding your network, and learning a few skills along the way (btw I wrote about the advantages of building a personal brand in an issue about marketing for engineers). It has very few downsides.
Will it turn into a side hustle? That highly depends on what you did before (and how "hot" that thing was) and how successfully you were able to talk about it. It doesn't depend on years of experience, how good of an engineer you are, or how much work you put into it.
However, we're all playing in the same sandbox, and we can all benefit from teaming up with the people who have already made it or are further in the game than we are.
Almost everyone who started a side-something (be it a book, business, newsletter or social presence) thinks “damn, why didn’t I do it sooner”?
I started thinking about it 3 years ago, actually posting on LinkedIn a year ago, and a newsletter 5 months ago. It felt WAY too late, but this creator economy is not a zero sum game - you ride the wave of others’ success.
Thanks for such a thorough take on this, Louie! You've voiced what's been on my mind for a while!
I also think the environment in Big Tech companies has just become outright toxic to anyone who respects themselves - for example, on-calls make many engineers effectively work 24/7 (by having to be available even outside 9-5, including in the middle of the night on the weekends!).
Also, the grind to "get into" these companies doesn't really stop when one gets hired - they now have to constantly fight and play political games just to continuously "prove" their worth to the upper management (who's churning over itself), despite the fact they've already proven themselves many times over. It's just a never-ending spiral that will only retain either the most desperate folks, or the ones who don't really respect their own time, deep down.
Thanks for mentioning my newsletter, Louie. You have been a great source of inspiration for me as well, and your support has been invaluable. In my case, loving what I do and what I am writing about helped a lot to be consistent.
I love what you’re doing Franco, keep going my friend. My goal too is to enjoy this game and play it as long as possible :)
Hey Louie - let me give you another perspective on this.
Yes, big tech orgs are laying off people. Yes, GenAI will increase productivity. Yes to all of those.
But we are forgetting that Big Tech was hiring LIKE CRAZY in 2020-2021-2022, at a non-sustainable rate.
I checked Google and Microsoft: in 2022, they both hired the highest number of employees EVER in their history...
I checked Amazon: they hired more than 800K employees only in 2020 and 2021. Sure, they got rid of 100K of them in 2022 and 2023, but still...
I wouldn't be surprised if this is the trend of other large tech companies as well. Because I remember noticing it during the first couple of years of the 2020s.
So, in my opinion, the lesson here is that they were too aggressive in the good times and, actually, they have been TOO SOFT so far in the bad times.
They should have made people redundant at a quicker pace earlier on, to avoid this state of uncertainty that, as you well know, people dislike.
The universal learning is that people often fall into the trap of believing that what's good will last forever (hence, "let's hire as many people as possible"), and what's bad will never improve (hence, "Big Tech is dying")...
I entirely agree with the philosophy of "diversifying out": indeed, people should work on it when things are going great, without the additional stress that we normally experience when the skies are cloudy...
PS: sorry for the lengthy comment!!
I appreciate your thoughtful comments TMC.
They always get me thinking. I think there is a good chance you’re right.
And still my gut instincts are that these firms have climbed to highs we’ve never seen before. And a lot of change is coming, there are also serious possibilities they botch some of their adaptations to these changes. In my opinion Google is already showing strong signs of not being able to adapt in their core business vs OpenAi, etc. Twitter going with 80% layoffs and still working is an insane thing to thing about, etc.
But by en large I think you’re right that the pandemic compounded their problems a little bit more.
Let’s see though, just a few years ago it was impossible to see any of these firms lose their grip.
Yep, my thoughts too. I think we'll see hordes of super talented engineers deciding to go solo. This is my first month.
“we've got an industry that already needs fewer people than most. And now, AI is coming into the picture. [...] I am pessimistic about big tech companies, but I am very optimistic about tech skills continuing to be valuable and useful. It is just where those tech skills might be most useful may not be in the places they used to be valued most before.”
It’s very possible Ryan, that we will see many more try and carve their own path. In my opinion, it’s a good thing, the pie is still growing a lot. And it might grow more.
Great stuff, Louie!
Online presence is excellent for your personal brand, expanding your network, and learning a few skills along the way (btw I wrote about the advantages of building a personal brand in an issue about marketing for engineers). It has very few downsides.
Will it turn into a side hustle? That highly depends on what you did before (and how "hot" that thing was) and how successfully you were able to talk about it. It doesn't depend on years of experience, how good of an engineer you are, or how much work you put into it.
However, we're all playing in the same sandbox, and we can all benefit from teaming up with the people who have already made it or are further in the game than we are.
Loved it :)
Almost everyone who started a side-something (be it a book, business, newsletter or social presence) thinks “damn, why didn’t I do it sooner”?
I started thinking about it 3 years ago, actually posting on LinkedIn a year ago, and a newsletter 5 months ago. It felt WAY too late, but this creator economy is not a zero sum game - you ride the wave of others’ success.
Thank you Anton.
And well said. I think that’s exactly right. The downside & risks of trying are lower than most think.
Thanks for the shoutout Louie. It was great meeting you in real life.
Likewise Kunal, really enjoyed our meetup. It’s awesome to connect with someone else on this journey IRL.
Love your efforts to accelerate this cambrian explosion. I too would like to help democratize tech out from BigCos
Thanks for such a thorough take on this, Louie! You've voiced what's been on my mind for a while!
I also think the environment in Big Tech companies has just become outright toxic to anyone who respects themselves - for example, on-calls make many engineers effectively work 24/7 (by having to be available even outside 9-5, including in the middle of the night on the weekends!).
Also, the grind to "get into" these companies doesn't really stop when one gets hired - they now have to constantly fight and play political games just to continuously "prove" their worth to the upper management (who's churning over itself), despite the fact they've already proven themselves many times over. It's just a never-ending spiral that will only retain either the most desperate folks, or the ones who don't really respect their own time, deep down.